An Alfijir Labarai Investigation into New External Sector Data
By Alfijir Labarai
Nigeria recorded a significant increase in its current account surplus, with the country’s surplus rising to $7.54 billion in the second quarter of 2026.
New data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the figure increased by 67.93 per cent from the $4.49 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
The Q2 2026 figure was also higher than the $5.17 billion recorded in the second quarter of 2025.
WHAT DROVE THE INCREASE?
One of the major factors behind the improvement was the increase in Nigeria’s earnings from exports.
Nigeria’s total exports rose to $20.08 billion in Q2 2026, from $15.56 billion in Q1.
Within this figure:
• Earnings from crude oil exports increased by 15.78 per cent to $9.39 billion.
• Gas exports increased by 40.15 per cent to $3.63 billion.
• Refined petroleum product exports generated $3.94 billion, representing a 66.24 per cent increase.
• Non-oil exports increased by 25.30 per cent to $3.12 billion.
LOWER CRUDE OIL IMPORTS
Another important factor was the reduction in Nigeria’s spending on crude oil imports.
CBN data showed that crude oil imports fell to $580 million in Q2 2026, from $1.39 billion in Q1 2026.
This contributed to the expansion of Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus, which reached $10.12 billion in Q2.
REMITTANCES FROM NIGERIANS ABROAD
Money sent home by Nigerians living abroad also contributed to the improvement.
Personal transfers, including workers’ remittances, increased by 9.81 per cent to $5.82 billion in Q2 2026.
This helped strengthen Nigeria’s external position during the quarter.
BUT SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS REMAIN
Despite the improvement, CBN data showed that Nigeria continued to record significant outflows.
Net outflows from the services account reached $4.67 billion in Q2, compared with $3.71 billion in Q1.
The primary income deficit also increased to $4.20 billion from $3.23 billion, largely reflecting dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
EXTERNAL RESERVES ALSO INCREASED
CBN data showed that Nigeria’s external reserves increased from $48.35 billion at the end of March 2026 to $51.39 billion at the end of June 2026.
Nigeria also recorded an overall balance-of-payments surplus of $3.51 billion in Q2 2026.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR NIGERIANS?
The increase in the current account surplus indicates that, during the quarter, Nigeria’s earnings from its international transactions exceeded a significant portion of its external payments.
However, this does not automatically mean that consumer prices or the value of the naira will immediately improve.
More importantly, the increase in foreign exchange earnings could help strengthen foreign exchange liquidity, external reserves and the overall stability of Nigeria’s external position.
THE BIG QUESTION FROM ALFIJIR LABARAI
As Nigeria records higher foreign exchange earnings from crude oil, gas, refined petroleum products, non-oil exports and remittances, the key question remains:
Will this increase in foreign exchange earnings translate into tangible benefits for ordinary Nigerians through improved naira stability, lower pressure on the cost of goods and stronger economic conditions?
Alfijir Labarai will continue to monitor this development and examine how Nigeria’s growing foreign exchange earnings affect the naira, the foreign exchange market and the wider economy.
SOURCES
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) — Provisional Balance of Payments Statistics, Q2 2026.
TheCable — “CBN says Nigeria’s current account surplus rose 68% to $7bn in Q2.”
Punch — “Nigeria’s current account surplus jumps to $7.5bn.”
THISDAY — “Nigeria’s External Position Strengthens as Exports, Remittances Lift Q2 Surplus to $7.54bn.”
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